Commodities Weekly Another jumbo OPEC+ hike?; Copper market dislocation We expect OPEC+ to agree to another bumper increase in output at its meeting this weekend and clearly with supply increasing rapidly that will heap downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Commodities Outlook: Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlook Although instability in the Middle East could easily push oil prices into triple-digit territory, as things stand, the oil market looks set to remain well-supplied and so we expect bearish... 23rd June 2025 · 22 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Israel’s strikes on Iran put the ball in OPEC+’s court From an oil market perspective, the key risk from the latest flare-up in the Middle East is that the nature of retaliatory action disrupts oil supply and trade in the region. OPEC+ will be the key... 13th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ oil demand cannot prevent prices from falling Greater oil demand within OPEC+ economies – most notably Saudi Arabia – could offset additional supply from the group over the coming months and support oil prices. However, given that any boost to... 10th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Aluminium and steel: higher tariffs → bigger impacts The existing tariffs on aluminium and steel have already raised metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere, and it is logical to assume that the announced doubling of tariff rates will only... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly On, off, and on again tariffs is a recipe for volatility Commodity prices have swung alongside the tariff news flow this week. While there is plenty of uncertainty around the implications of this week's developments, we know that product-specific tariffs... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Commodities in an age of tariffs Although the global tariff environment now appears to be heading towards a far more benign environment than had appeared likely a month or so ago, it still represents a demand shock that will prove a... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update What do price ratios tell us about the value of gold? The lack of an income stream makes it notoriously hard to value gold objectively. And while the price of gold relative to other assets – such as silver, oil and equities – is often used to assess the... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg up After an extraordinary rally in gold prices, the recent pullback naturally raises the question of where gold prices may be headed next. In our view, the rest of this year will prove more challenging... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Lessons from US-China trade war 1.0 for soybeans Soybeans are once again caught in the firing line of the US-China trade war. There is plenty of uncertainty around the exact ramifications for the shape of global trading patterns and prices, but the... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A pulse check on the oil market amid tariff mayhem The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A framework for commodities ahead of liberation day Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2nd, dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Trump’s upside risks to oil prices blunted by OPEC+ Following President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, the upside risks to oil prices from his foreign policy are crystallising. That said, OPEC+’s spare capacity and... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
