Commodities Weekly US diesel ban; crude scarcity; China’s copper squeeze The prospect of a US ban on diesel exports threatens to make a bad situation worse, especially as signs of physical scarcity in the crude oil market have emerged. Our sense is that while the White... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A bigger oil demand adjustment lies ahead Global oil demand has been surprisingly resilient so far given the scale of the supply shock. But if that resilience persists and supply from the Middle East remains constrained, a sustained period of... 16th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions on the closure of the East-West pipeline The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could impact up to 4% of global oil supply and each week of the pipeline’s closure could knock up to 0.3%-pts off Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Uncertainty about... 14th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The good, the bad and the ugly in the oil market Reports that more crude oil has been traversing the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate concerns about the availability of crude oil supply. Reasons for caution remain, though, as the White House's... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Where the upside risks lie for EU natural gas prices The slow summer rebuild of natural gas storage in the EU means that the price of the TTF benchmark will remain close to current levels over the winter, even if LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz... 6th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Oil and natural gas markets remain sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. If a deal is reached, we wouldn’t expect energy prices to collapse immediately as it will likely take... 5th August 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Our thoughts on oil’s paper-physical market disconnect Oil prices have fallen back on net this week even though shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill, which has prompted questions about the disconnect between paper and physical... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Back to square one in the oil market At this stage, we still consider that the escalation in the war between the US and Iran is consistent with our baseline view that the recovery in oil flows would be bumpy and punctuated by flare-ups... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market investors stuck in limbo again The escalation of the US-Iran war over the last week has caused investors to rapidly adjust their views of the upside risks in the oil market. If conditions continue to deteriorate, the lesson from... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly From bad to worse for gold; Iraq the next to leave OPEC? Gold has been caught up in the souring of risk sentiment towards AI-related assets, and its strengthening correlation with equities is one reason why we think gold prices have further to fall in the... 26th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A pulse check on the oil market The combination of a plunge in China’s imports and an increase in the US’s exports have helped to absorb the loss of Middle Eastern supply in the oil market. But fundamentally demand is still well... 10th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Central bank goldbugs; Godzilla El Niño Gold has overtaken US Treasuries in accounting for the largest share of foreign reserves held be central banks, according to an ECB report, underlining just how strong central banks' appetite for gold... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The art of (looking beyond) the deal Oil prices have fallen throughout the week in anticipation of the US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, but while re-opening the Strait is a necessary step towards normality in the global... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders caught in limbo Oil market options data suggest that investors expect oil prices to ease lower over the next three months, but given uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz they have unusually low conviction. 26th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online... 28th April 2026 · 5 mins read
