While much of the sharp contraction in manufacturing in the second quarter can be put down to Brexit distortions, a meaningful recovery is unlikely given the ongoing struggles of global manufacturing. But the resilience of the services sector suggests that the economy as a whole won’t contract. The upshot is that unless there is a no deal Brexit, we think that the UK will avoid recession.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.