Which measure of GDP should we believe?

The divergence between the quarterly and the monthly measures of GDP have left it unclear whether the economy is still languishing at about 2.0% below its pre-pandemic level or if it is nearing that milestone. But regardless of how close the economy is to that benchmark, the big picture is that the recovery has now entered a slower and more challenging phase. And with supply shortages acting as an additional brake on output, we think that over the next six months GDP growth will be weaker than most expect.