The economic upsides of a vaccine

An effective COVID-19 vaccine would dramatically improve the economic outlook. It may allow GDP to rise to its pre-virus level a year earlier than otherwise and mean that the unemployment rate peaks at 7% next year instead of 9%. But while this would reduce the need for more Quantitative Easing (QE) and/or negative interest rates, we doubt the Bank of England would reverse QE or raise rates for many years.