The disappointing 2.1% m/m rise in GDP (consensus forecast 4.6%) adds to the evidence that the initial rebound in economic activity is running out of steam. And with new restrictions being imposed to curb the resurgence in COVID-19 cases, we think that a similar rise at best in September will be followed by no increase in GDP at all in the last three months of the year. The big risk now is more restrictions and a no deal Brexit send the recovery into reverse.
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