How to think about the long-term effects of the virus

The immediate effects of the coronavirus on the global economy are becoming increasingly clear and point to a sharp fall in output across the world. Recession looms. The effects over the longer term are less obvious. The most likely outcome is that economies return to the pre-virus path of GDP within a couple of years, albeit with some lost output in the meantime. But that hinges on several things going right over the coming months and quarters.