The surge in virus cases in Switzerland means that the government is all but certain to tighten restrictions, probably severely, next week. While the strong finish to Q3 provides a solid platform for quarterly GDP growth in Q4, we think that the recovery will grind to a halt, at best, in Q1. Next week, we expect data to show that the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped back sharply in October and the Swedish economy started Q4 on the back foot. Meanwhile, amid rising expectations that the ECB will loosen policy again before long, the SNB will be watching its policy meeting, next Thursday, with interest.
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