Gulf’s economic recovery to falter

A raft of GDP releases over the past month showed that growth in the Gulf strengthened in Q3 of last year, but a renewed slowdown is likely in the coming quarters. In aggregate, it looks like the Gulf economies expanded at their fastest pace since early 2016. But with oil output cuts set to exert a drag and low oil prices likely to prompt fresh austerity measures, growth is likely to slow over the course of this year. Indeed, our growth forecasts for the Gulf economies lie below the consensus.