Metals still staring into the abyss

Industrial metals prices plummeted in March. And with the virus-related disruption outside of China yet to peak, we suspect that prices will fall further over the coming months. Even if containment measures are eased from the second half of the year (as we assume), and demand starts to revive, stocks of metal built up over the next few months will weigh on any recovery in prices. Consequently, we forecast that industrial metals prices will end the year far below where they began. On the other hand, the huge uncertainty still facing the global economy is likely to benefit the price of gold.