Brazil’s election campaign, Banxico’s prudence

Campaigning for Brazil’s elections in October started this week, and market-friendly candidate Geraldo Alckmin seems to have positioned himself well to mount a challenge to the leading populists. However, Mexico’s recent election, where expectations that party machinery would boost the support of more technocratic candidates never materialised, provides a cautionary tale. Meanwhile, the minutes to Banxico’s latest policy meeting were hawkish, but we think the bar for further hikes is quite high.