A victory for Hugo Chávez in next month’s presidential election could culminate in an economic crisis in Venezuela at some point during the next six year term. By contrast, a win for the Opposition’s Henrique Capriles Radonski offers the greatest chance of the economic reforms that could avert disaster and lay the foundations for growth. As ever, oil prices will be a critical factor and, somewhat paradoxically, a period of low prices may be in Venezuela’s best long-run interests.
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