World trade volumes declined in August after strong monthly gains in June and July, but the pull-back looks nothing worse than a pause in an improving trend that near term has further to run. Asian exports rose strongly in September and final demand in developed economies should accelerate for a few quarters. Nevertheless, the long run recovery will stay a long hard slog. We expect that it will take around two years for world trade volumes to move back up to mid-2008, pre-crisis, levels.
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