Has the game really changed?

While the very positive response to the ECB’s plans to undertake “Outright Monetary Transactions” (OMTs) is not entirely without foundation, it at least looks over the top. On close inspection, the plans look like a restricted version of the previously ineffectual Securities Markets Programme. Even if the programme lives up to the early hopes, that would not necessarily be inconsistent with our position. We have long stressed that our central scenario of only a limited form of euro-zone break-up relies on much more decisive action from the region’s policymakers, including the ECB.