Were rental value falls a sign of things to come in Russia?

Developments in the commercial property market normally tend to follow developments in the real economy with a lag. But with hindsight, it seems that the devastating falls in rental values reported in Moscow between 2008Q3 and 2009Q1 were a warning of quite how far economic activity had fallen. We see little reason to expect the Russian recession to end this year. But whenever growth recovers, in contrast to the downturn, commercial property indicators are unlikely to give advance warning.