Sharp interest rate cuts won’t help Turkish commercial property

The Central Bank of Turkey’s most recent interest rate cut was the second in a row to surprise markets in its scale (75bps, to 9.75% on 16th April). However, unexpectedly sharp rate cuts do not mean that the outlook for Turkish commercial property has improved. Crucially, prospects for the real economy and, hence, property rents are poor and getting weaker. Even if Turkey does strike a new deal with the IMF, substantially negative property returns remain likely this year and next.