EM growth running at a three-year low

EM GDP growth slowed to just 3.3% y/y in Q1, its weakest pace since the first half of 2016, and our Tracker suggests that it remained sluggish in Q2. Growth should pick up a little in the second half of the year. Large commodity producers, such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa, are likely to find their feet again after a terrible performance in Q1. And Turkey and Argentina should recover from the downturns caused by last year’s currency crises. But growth will remain weak and, in most cases, our 2019 and 2020 GDP growth forecasts are below consensus.