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What next for the recovery? Politics takes centre stage

Despite a surge in virus cases at the start of the year, most countries recorded decent growth in the first quarter. We expect recoveries to continue over the coming months on the back of an easing of virus restrictions and a reopening of international borders. However, new headwinds are starting to emerge. There are already signs that higher oil prices are weighing on consumer sentiment, while there are also indications that exports are losing momentum.
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