Further rate hikes still look close in Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.5% today, as expected. Nevertheless, the local economic upswing remains strong, at a time when there is little spare capacity. Accordingly, we judge that further hikes in the cash rate are only a matter of time and that the next move will come in November. The Aussie dollar rally should continue. Meanwhile, the Independents in parliament have finally made up their minds and Labor will form a new minority government.