End-June rally on shaky ground

June’s price volatility offered something for everyone, with several key commodities seeing unusually large moves either up or down, and, in the case of oil, both over the course of the month. This underlines the importance of stepping back from the day-to-day noise to see the big picture. Low expectations have allowed markets to gain some comfort from the outcome of the EU Summit, but the incoming macroeconomic data have remained weak. This suggests that the late-June rally in commodity prices is unlikely to be sustained.