What China tells us about the likely shape of recovery

The economic recovery underway in China gives some useful pointers to what lies ahead for the rest of the world. An initial increase in activity can happen rapidly once lockdown measures are eased. But this will soon run into constraints resulting from subdued demand. Consumers and firms will remain nervous, and labour markets weak. Services will lag manufacturing. And lockdown measures may have to be tightened again if infections reappear.