Prospects for a sustained rebound in growth dimming

Following 3.9% annualised growth in the first quarter, our latest calculations point to a substantial slowdown in second-quarter GDP growth, to 1.2%. Although we anticipate a partial rebound in the third quarter, prospects for a sustained rebound in the second half of this year appear to be slipping. While gasoline prices have begun to decline, rising food prices may leave a larger imprint on real household incomes and discretionary spending. We also expect any pick up in US economic growth during the second half of this year to be limited and growth in the developing world appears to be slowing.