Rand respite unlikely to last

Like most other major emerging market currencies, the South African rand has rebounded over the past month as markets have adjusted to the prospect of US monetary policy staying looser for longer than initially expected. But while the rand has strengthened by around 2% against the US$ since the start of the month, it has still weakened by 15% since the start of the year. And looking ahead, we think it has further to fall over the course of 2014-15.