China Economics Update China’s population may have peaked China’s census has revealed the first population decline since the People’s Republic was founded, according to the FT. If this is confirmed and the beginning of a trend, China’s challenge in... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as PBOC relies on other policy tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Given that official efforts to rein in credit are being achieved by other means, we do not expect any changes to policy rates in the... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Renminbi turning a corner The renminbi has gained 9% against the US dollar since last May. But the factors that underpinned this appreciation have faded. With US yields moving in the dollar’s favour and China’s economic... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Deferring retirement would barely lift employment China’s statutory retirement ages are low. Raising them, as the Five-Year Plan proposes, would make the pension system more affordable but it wouldn’t make an appreciable difference to the ongoing... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold, PBOC signals preference for other tools Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged today. We have been forecasting the PBOC to hike rates this year but the likelihood of that is diminishing – the PBOC appears to favour... 22nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Quietly doubling down on Made in China 2025 The 14th Five-Year Plan makes clear that self-sufficiency has grown as a priority for China’s leadership. But it is light on specifics. The details will probably be fleshed out in the raft of industry... 19th March 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl The reports delivered at today’s opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) confirm that with the COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror the focus of China’s leadership has shifted away... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Planning to do it alone The 14 th Five-Year Plan should provide a revealing view of the key challenges that China’s leadership believes it faces. High among them is a more hostile global environment. In the economic sphere... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong sustains fiscal support Hong Kong has curtailed some of last year’s emergency spending but today’s budget signals that fiscal policy remains loose. There is room to do more, but the key determinant of the economic outlook is... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but PBOC more hawkish Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged on Saturday. But monetary conditions have tightened in practice since the start of the year. We expect the PBOC to formalise the shift with... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update This lockdown could boost the economy New restrictions on travel will disrupt Lunar New Year plans for many families in China but they should also reduce the disruption to manufacturing and construction that normally causes output to... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold for now but likely to end 2021 higher Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with monetary conditions already being tightened in practice and underlying inflation set to rebound, we think it is still likely... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update All of the service sector now back to growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data published today shows that the services sector, which had been lagging construction and industry, has returned to its pre-virus growth path, with all... 19th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property sector facing new restrictions on credit The share of bank loans flowing to the property sector has doubled during the past 15 years. But new restrictions are likely to put an end to this upward trend. Coupled with broader limits on... 8th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC sets more hawkish tone on monetary policy Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with China’s leadership eyeing a gradual withdrawal of policy support, we think the PBOC will start to hike its policy rates next... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
