In the last US Weekly of the year we want to flag up the main risks surrounding our new forecast that GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2011, before slowing to 2.0% in 2012. The main upside risk is that we are...

The recent run of stronger economic data has prompted us to raise our fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 4% annualised, from 2.5%. Based on the higher starting point for GDP going into next year...

The Fed was always going to leave the size of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) unchanged today as it is too soon to judge whether it has been a success or a failure. If we are right in...

The rate of decline in our Capital Economics' measure of M3 has eased, while the growth rates of M1 and M2 have picked up again slightly. However, there is nothing here to suggest that inflation is...