Halfway through the Fed's second round of quantitative easing there is still no sign that it is boosting broad money growth. M2 is growing no faster than nominal GDP and our measure of M3, which...

One of the unintentional side effects of the current impasse in Congress over raising the debt ceiling is that it has led to a significant expansion of the monetary base. Indeed, the drop in the...

The rise in the price of oil to above $100 per barrel (pb) will not send the economy back into a recession or push the Fed much closer to tightening policy. Relative to our existing forecasts, the...

The growing spat surrounding the possibility of a Federal government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling could turn out to be nothing more than old-fashioned political theatre, with...