Given the size of the US Federal deficit, which will be close to 10% of GDP this year, and the daunting medium-term fiscal challenges, it is hard to argue with S&P's decision to put a negative outlook...

Every data release last week seemed to necessitate a further downward revision to our first-quarter GDP growth forecast. By the end of the week when the dust had finally settled, that estimate was...

Recent events have left our forecast that the Fed will not raise interest rates either this year or next out on a limb. But we are sticking to our guns. After all, this time last year a fading of the...

The possibility of a Federal government shutdown is back on the front pages, with concern growing that no agreement will be reached before the current continuing spending resolution expires this...