This week's release of GDP for the fourth quarter will confirm that the real economy has finally returned to the size it was before the recession struck. But it will be some years yet before the US...

The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3...

The unexpected dip in the NFIB gauge of small business optimism in December has reignited fears that smaller firms are missing out on the recovery. As we have pointed out before, however, the NFIB...

The second downward leg in house prices, which began last year, is likely to have a smaller impact on consumer spending than the initial plunge both in proportionate and absolute terms. Nonetheless...