Much more important than whether or not the US economy contracts for one quarter or more is that a fundamental deficit in demand means there is little prospect of a significant and sustained...

The plunge in the Philly Fed manufacturing index in August is not a sure-fire sign that a recession is imminent. The ISM index is more reliable. And even if the ISM index were to fall in line with the...

The sharp acceleration in money growth in July is not a result of the Fed's loose monetary policies but instead has been driven by investors moving out of equities and/or Treasuries and into cash...

If the experiences of the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are anything to go by, the Fed's pledge to keep rates low "at least through mid-2013" supports our new forecast that 10 year Treasury yields...