Our baseline view is still that the US economy will avoid a recession, albeit only narrowly. Furthermore, if there is a recession, we suspect it would be a fairly modest one because the most cyclical...

One reason why wage growth may have not fallen much below 2% could be that the structural unemployment rate has risen by more than most estimates suggest. The extent of skills and location mismatching...

Despite the explosion in Federal government debt, the US economy as a whole has been deleveraging since the financial crisis erupted in 2008. The reduction in debt by the household and financial...

Operation Twist is a go, albeit with a small twist on the twist. The Fed's announcement today that it will act to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings, by buying $400bn of securities...