The Fed's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for much longer than previously won't significantly boost the real economy. Admittedly, the chances of QE3 have risen. But the rebound in core...

While we think that the chances of another recession are relatively low, the risks are certainly rising. More generally, the recent run of weak economic data and the sharp falls in equity prices...

The news that S&P finally pulled the trigger by cutting America's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ will surely rock the financial markets when they open on Monday. But any spike in Treasury...

If the recent financial market moves are sustained, the net effect could be to reduce annualised GDP growth by around 0.5%. That would not tip the US into recession. But it supports our long-held view...