The mounting fiscal crisis in the euro-zone obviously represents the biggest downside to our forecast that the US economy will continue to expand next year, albeit by a pretty modest 1.5%. In a worst...

The apparent failure of the congressional deficit reduction super committee to reach any agreement is not the disaster it is being portrayed as by some commentators. As we argued in our most recent US...

Even if the super committee fails to recommend ways to reduce the budget deficit by Wednesday's deadline, as there will be no government shutdown, no debt default and no credit rating downgrade, we...

The growth rate of money has levelled out over the past couple of months, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year.