In addition to forecasting interest rates for the first time, by the end of this month the Fed may have adopted numerical targets for both inflation and the unemployment rate and perhaps even launched...

Just how US banks cope with the euro-zone crisis, which we believe will involve the departure of at least one nation from the currency union next year, could make or break the US economy in 2012.

The growth rate of all the monetary aggregates has remained steady recently, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year.

We expect GDP growth of 1.5% for next year, down trivially from about 1.7% this year. Inflation should fall sharply to below 1% by year end, as commodity prices continue to drop back and the...