Even though our measure of M3 grew by a healthy 5.6% in the year to January, there are some signs that bank lending is starting to grow more slowly. The danger is that a sovereign debt default in the...

It has been suggested that the reported decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.3% in January, from a high of 10.0% in February 2009, is not nearly as good as it looks because...

At first glance, America's fiscal prospects are worse than those of the peripheral euro-zone countries, although the US does have a few key advantages that mean it should continue to enjoy very low...

The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5...