BoE Watch Will 4.50% be the peak? With the financial markets and other forecasters having come round to our long-held view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.50%, the real question is whether a 25 basis points rise to 4.50% at the Monetary... 4th May 2023 · 7 mins read
BoE Watch 25bps hike, if banking situation doesn’t escalate The concerns over the health of the global banking system and the easing in domestic inflationary pressures mean it is almost 50:50 between the Monetary Policy Committee pausing/ending its series of... 16th March 2023 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Bank not yet willing to call the peak Another 50 basis points (bps) rise in interest rates, from 3.50% to 4.00%, at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 2nd February wouldn’t surprise the markets. But our view that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Peak is in sight, but we’re not there yet A shift from the 75 basis point hike in interest rates in November to a 50 basis point rise, from 3.00% to 3.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 15th December would show that the Monetary Policy... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch BoE to deliver a more “forceful” interest rate hike The further strengthening in domestic inflationary pressures and exceptional tightness in the labour market suggests there is a strong case for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to opt for an... 27th October 2022 · 10 mins read
BoE Watch Truss makes the Bank work harder Although the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, has saved some of the blushes at the Bank of England by reducing the probable peak in inflation from at least 14.5% to around 10.5%, the resulting support... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
BoE Watch Stepping up the fight We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to step up its fight against high inflation at its meeting on Thursday 4th August by raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), from 1.25% to 1.75%... 28th July 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Joining the 50bps club The further tightening in the labour market, the additional loosening in fiscal policy and more evidence that the weaker activity outlook is not reducing price and wage expectations lead us to believe... 9th June 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Rates heading to 3.0% as MPC focuses on inflation concerns The weakening economic outlook has deepened the dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). But we think the MPC is sufficiently worried about rising price/wage expectations to raise Bank Rate... 28th April 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics War won’t derail the MPC’s rate hiking plans The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine have worsened the already tricky mix between soaring inflation and slowing GDP growth. But we think the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is sufficiently... 10th March 2022 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch February rate hike, and three more on the way in 2022 The further surge in inflation coupled with the rapid tightening in the labour market will probably prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates from 0.25% now to 0.50% on... 27th January 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Omicron to stay MPC’s hand, but won’t prevent 2022 lift off We wouldn’t completely rule it out, but we no longer expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates from 0.10% on Thursday 16th December. We now think rates will rise to 0.25% in... 9th December 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics BoE fast out of the blocks on rates, but won’t go the distance We now think there’s a high chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday 4th November. It may then raise rates to 0.50% in... 28th October 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Slowing recovery eases pressure to hike The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled in August that it is getting closer to raising interest rates, but the gloomy tone of the recent news on the global and UK economies will have reduced the... 16th September 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Divisions emerge, but early end to BoE’s asset purchases unlikely While the Bank of England will upgrade its near-term forecasts for inflation in its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published on 5th August, it will probably still judge that the rise is transitory. And... 29th July 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics No tightening until 2024, and then by unwinding QE first Even though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will probably acknowledge in the policy announcement on Thursday 24th June that activity and inflation have been stronger than it expected, we don’t... 17th June 2021 · 8 mins read
