BoE Watch

BoE Watch offers expert analysis on the Bank of England's next moves. Published a week before each MPC meeting, this report explores how policymakers may respond to economic developments and shape UK interest rates. BoE Watch is part of our suite of analysis, data products, and economist engagement services designed to keep investors ahead of the curve.

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BoE Watch

BoE Watch: UK rates to be cut slower but perhaps further than investors expect

The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% on Thursday 8th May. But we think the markets have got ahead of themselves in expecting interest rates to be cut by...

2nd May 2025 6 mins read

BoE Watch

BoE Watch: UK MPC not as dovish as March’s vote may suggest

The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.50% at the policy meeting on Thursday 20th March and this might be the second meeting in a row when the vote suggests the Bank is...

13th March 2025 6 mins read

BoE Watch

BoE Watch: Does the weak economy create a case for cutting rates faster?

The Bank of England will probably strike a balance between the recent weak news on activity and the stronger news on price pressures by cutting interest rates by a “gradual” 25 basis points (bps)...

30th January 2025 6 mins read

BoE Watch

Economy not weak enough to trigger consecutive rate cuts

Despite the weak news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the global outlook, we doubt the Bank of England will follow the ECB’s lead and cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next...

12th December 2024 5 mins read

BoE Watch

Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?

The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates for the second time in this cycle, from 5.00% to 4.75%, at the meeting on Thursday 7th November. But it is unlikely to hint that it intends...

31st October 2024 8 mins read

BoE Watch

Slow pace of rate cuts initially, before quickening next year

We agree with the widespread expectation that the 25 basis point (bps) cut in interest rates in August will be followed by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leaving rates at 5.00% on Thursday 19th...

13th September 2024 6 mins read

BoE Watch

It’s close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longer

While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent strength and the stickiness of services inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will wait until its September meeting to cut...

25th July 2024 6 mins read

BoE Watch

BoE not ready to follow in the ECB’s footsteps…yet

Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 20th June will be any clues on how soon and how far rates will be cut. If inflation...

13th June 2024 6 mins read

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