BoE Watch Remain vote would bring rate hike back onto agenda With even overseas central banks citing the EU referendum as a reason not to raise rates this month, the chances of anything from the Bank of England are nil. If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we don... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to remain cautious ahead of referendum A policy change looks very unlikely this month. Not only will the MPC not want to rock the boat ahead of the EU referendum, but the economy still does not look strong enough to warrant a tightening of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold for a while yet Weaker-than-anticipated inflation, lingering uncertainty in global financial markets and concerns about the impact that the EU referendum is having on the real economy means that this month’s interest... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Heightened uncertainty should ensure unanimous vote Recent developments are unlikely to have caused Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to fundamentally change their view since they voted unanimously to leave rates on hold in February. Indeed... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report to signal rate expectations are too low The messages from this month’s Inflation Report will probably be pretty mixed. A lower profile for growth and inflation over the next few quarters should cement expectations that an interest rate rise... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Will 2016 be the year when interest rates finally rise? The fall in oil prices, a souring in global market sentiment, weaker wage data and some unfavourable revisions to GDP growth suggest that the chances of rates not rising until the second half of the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Markets shrug off MPC’s warnings And so another year of rock bottom interest rates is set to pass us by. It is getting on for seven years since interest rates reached 0.5% and it is over eight years since we saw an interest rate rise... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Oct.) The slight bounce-back in the Markit/CIPS services survey in October brought moree vidence of what we expect will be a rebound in growth in Q4, after the slowdown in Q3. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report could warn markets have gone too far We expect mixed messages from this month’s Inflation Report. On the one hand, a lower profile for inflation over the next few months is likely to confirm that interest rates will not rise until well... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to hold fire despite stronger labour market The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not seem too concerned by risks from China, while the recent pick-up in wage growth will worry the hawks on the Committee. Indeed, markets have probably gone... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Market turmoil to reinforce MPC’s dovish stance Last month’s MPC minutes and Inflation Report suggested that the Committee was in less of a hurry to raise rates than many had thought. And the recent market turmoil and commodity price falls are only... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Hawks to break rank This month’s MPC vote will probably be split for the first time this year. While only a minority will vote for a rate rise, the risk of a hike this year has risen. Indeed, Mark Carney will probably... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Unanimous for one more month There is probably a greater chance of Angela Merkel becoming Prime Minister of Greece than the MPC raising interest rates this month. And while a couple of MPC members look set to respond to the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Deflation and overseas risks to keep rate rise at bay Since June’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) comes just three weeks after the publication of the latest Inflation Report and recent data have not challenged its view that inflation will... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Election just one reason to keep rates on hold We doubt that the Monetary Policy Committee would want to change monetary policy so close to a general election, especially when a new government might not even have been formed by the time of this... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch “Noflation” unlikely to prompt rate cut We think that the deflation likely to be seen in the coming months will of the “good” sort, lasting only a short while and boosting households’ spending power. So we doubt that a rate cut – as floated... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read