Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Housing downturn not over yet Australia’s house prices have rebounded over the last couple of months and most leading indicators suggest that the recovery has legs. However, we doubt that a sustained recovery is on the cards... 15th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Inflation set to slow sharply The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now... 15th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Monetary policy will be loosened next year With inflation surprising to the upside in Q3, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to revise up its near-term forecasts for inflation in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. What’s more, the... 7th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long The 1.7% q/q rise in New Zealand’s production GDP and the 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s GDP in Q2 were among the strongest increases among major advanced economies. (See Chart 1.) However, GDP growth... 22nd September 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long Australia’s house prices are now falling at a similar rate as they did during the 2017-19 downturn, which was the largest in the country’s modern history. Home sales remain well above pre-pandemic... 22nd August 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Central Bankers’ confidence dilemma Inflation is surging in both Australia and New Zealand. That is putting pressure on central banks to hike interest rates to slow the economy and curb inflation. But both the RBNZ and the RBA... 21st April 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Surging inflation puts pressure on monetary policy Trimmed mean inflation rose to 2.1% in Australia in Q3, the first time it has entered the RBA’s 2-3% target band since 2015. Even more strikingly, trimmed mean inflation in New Zealand rose to 4.4%... 29th October 2021 · 11 mins read
