Africa Economics Update Nigeria: A slower economy risks turning MPC doveish The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy reforms have injected a welcome dose of momentum back into the country’s policy shift. But the minutes to the latest MPC meetings also suggest that... 24th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s fragmenting parliament a fiscal headache South Africa’s upcoming general election looks likely to result in a much more fragmented parliament and mark a shift to coalition government. The lesson from elsewhere in the emerging world is that... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy may be turning a corner South Africa’s latest hard activity data provided some encouraging signs that the economy may be turning the corner even if it comes too late to help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria stops ways and means use, but FX debt to rise Nigeria’s authorities have ceased central bank deficit monetisation via the ways and means facility. But the government will struggle to finance its ambitious spending plans – particularly given the... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: strong recovery set to weaken Uganda’s strong recent economic recovery is facing domestic and external headwinds, including international condemnation of the government’s Anti-Homosexuality Bill – and the associated impact on... 8th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update The economic effects of the drought in southern Africa El Niño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeping up the inflation fight The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting today and the continued hawkish rhetoric from Governor Kganyago supports our view that rate cuts... 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy adding to the ANC’s struggles South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy continued to struggle at the start of 2024, which will hardly help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in parliament after May’s... 20th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update The naira’s march to fair value The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is... 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: assessing the implications of a lower inflation target Talk of the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target being lowered has reared its head again. In this Update, we answer five key questions on what this could mean for the economy. In the near... 27th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: election pressures will challenge austerity plans The fiscal restraint shown by South Africa’s finance minister in today’s Budget was received positively in local financial markets, but the reality is that the government will struggle to meet its... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: fresh naira falls to curb growth Nigeria saw sluggish growth over the second half of last year, and the latest falls in the naira mean inflation is set to rise even further over the coming months, which should prompt the central bank... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can the SARB help South Africa’s public finances? South Africa’s fiscal strains have seen the government explore tapping revaluation gains on the country’s FX reserves held at the SARB. Utilising these funds to pay down the government’s debt would... 15th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa ended 2023 on a weak note South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy finished last year with a whimper, but we think that easing electricity outages, weaker inflation pressures and less restrictive fiscal... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Lessons from Africa’s sovereign debt restructurings Ghana’s relatively quick progress in debt restructuring talks with creditors contrasts with the slow experiences of Ethiopia and Zambia. Much of this can be explained by the China’s role in... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
