Africa Economics Update Africa: Coronavirus will cut growth across the region It now seems clear that the coronavirus outbreak will cause greater economic damage than we had initially thought – both globally and within Africa. Growth will slow across the region, with South... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB makes strong response South African policymakers appear to have decided that the current grave economic situation requires a bold response, and have moved away from their traditional hawkishness. We expect that they will... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Worsening outbreak will prompt SARB to cut Activity data from January suggest that the economy was already contracting before the coronavirus reached South Africa. The outbreak will add to economic headwinds. Policymakers are likely to spring... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Brief respite after Q4, but another contraction likely Early signs suggest that economic conditions improved at the start of Q1, but disruptions caused by the coronavirus make it likely that output will have fallen later in the quarter and going into Q2... 12th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Oil exporters’ currencies set for big falls Risk-off sentiment has already battered the rand, but we think that the Nigerian naira and Angolan kwanza will both fall further later this year when policymakers are forced to accept painful... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Coronavirus: Oil prices will deal key economic blow The coronavirus will probably continue to spread in Africa, but the biggest economic hit will come from lower oil prices. Indeed, Angola may suffer a bigger fall in GDP than anywhere outside the worst... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy in the doldrums The sharp fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q4 not only marked a technical recession, but also set up a very weak starting point for 2020. And downside risks are growing with the spread of the coronavirus... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Public sector cuts likely won’t prevent downgrade The government is trying to balance weak revenue with increased interest and SOE spending by cutting wages and programme costs, which will prove politically difficult. The weakening fiscal position... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa goes slow and steady President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address contained a few promising announcements, relating to independent power firms. But his continued stress on the need for consensus strengthened... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Putting monetary easing on hold We think that a recent string of on-target inflation data and a less accommodating external environment will delay further interest rate cuts in Ghana. But monetary loosening will probably resume in... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak Q4 sets up soft start for 2020 December’s misleadingly strong mining figures shouldn’t distract from evidence that GDP probably contracted in Q4, tipping the country into a recession and creating a very weak starting point for 2020... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: The economic cost of the locust outbreak After a severe drought in 2019, Kenya is now facing the worst desert locust outbreak in 70 years. The impact on livelihoods could be devastating, but the economy-wide cost is likely to be limited. 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB launches brief easing cycle South African policymakers surprised the markets by cutting the repo rate, but with inflation set to rise there is limited room for further easing. We expect just one further 25bp cut. 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recession still likely, despite stronger November Strong November retail sales figures suggest that South Africa’s economy gained ground in the middle of Q4. Given power cuts in December, however, we expect that output still fell over the quarter as... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Another technical recession looks likely South Africa’s manufacturing sector was struggling even before December’s power cuts, so production almost certainly fell in Q4. Given weakness in other sectors, we think that South Africa slipped... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read