Africa Economics Update Hawks’ majority in SARB to be short-lived Policymakers in South Africa upped the pace of tightening today, raising the repo rate by 50bp to 4.75%, as concerns about inflation (and inflation expectations in particular) have grown. We don’t... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update A primer on South Africa’s monetary policy reform The South African Reserve Bank is set to shake up its monetary policy setup. This Update provides some clarity on what policymakers will do and why, and what it means for monetary and credit... 11th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will continue to tighten slowly South Africa’s headline inflation rate will stay close to the upper bound of the central bank’s 3-6% target range in the coming months before falling sharply in the second half of the year. Some MPC... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s policy tightening to hold back recovery Ghana’s economic recovery will remain sluggish over the next couple of years as policy is tightened in a bid to shore up the public finances and tackle high inflation. The risk of an imminent... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery picks up but FX policies start to bite The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economy strengthened at the start of this year. But there are growing signs that the central bank’s draconian foreign exchange policies are leading to... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB continues to tighten, hawks gaining ground The upside inflation risks created by the war in Ukraine and the solid performance of South Africa’s economy prompted the Reserve Bank to push ahead with its tightening cycle today, raising the repo... 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine exacerbates external pressures Shifts in commodity prices in response to the war in Ukraine will provide a sizeable boost to current account positions in Angola and (to a lesser extent) Nigeria this year. Elsewhere, however, higher... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we roll out our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. The pandemic has increased debt burdens across the continent and, with... 21st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA budget shows healthier public finances… for now Today’s budget showed that South Africa’s public finances are in a better-than-expected shape but the path to stabilise the debt ratio remains narrow. Mounting pressures to provide more fiscal support... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SONA: Ramaphosa shies from letting off the fireworks South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to press ahead with his signature reform drive to boost the economy in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address, but most initiatives will take time to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery switching to an even slower lane Timely activity data suggest that, over Q4 as a whole, Nigeria’s economy came close to a standstill. The weak economic backdrop is likely to prevent the CBN from raising interest rates in the coming... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices to turn into headwind Our downbeat view that most commodity prices will fall back by year-end is largely negative for economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Zambia and Angola likely to be hardest hit, although some net... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB continues its dovish tightening cycle The South African Reserve Bank pressed ahead with its tightening cycle by raising the repo rate from 3.75% to 4.00% today as policymakers’ concerns about upside inflation risks and the global monetary... 27th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN remains fixated on supporting the recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today as it shrugged off the unexpected rise in inflation in December and maintained its focus on supporting the recovery... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update The latest on South Africa’s Omicron experience The recent sharp fall in virus cases in South Africa provides an early encouraging sign that Omicron-driven outbreaks may run their course relatively quickly. In South Africa’s case, the health system... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
