Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa, the Middle East conflict & the rates outlook Weak core inflation pressures in South Africa mean that the Reserve Bank is less likely to rule out monetary easing in the face of the energy price shock than most other EM central banks. If the... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Easing sovereign debt risks bolster the region’s resilience The shock from the conflict in the Middle East has only had a modest impact on government borrowing costs in Africa, reflecting a marked improvement in sovereign risk profiles in the last few years... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update The naira’s rally is probably over The Nigerian naira has been one of the strongest performing EM currencies since the start of the year, helped by an improved balance of payments position. But the naira’s rally is starting to hurt... 26th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gives away revenue windfall once again South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Budget speech to once again offer more fiscal giveaways, mainly in the form of putting off previously mooted tax rises, rather than save the revenue... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update How a fiscal rule would help South Africa There’s growing talk that South Africa’s government could introduce a fiscal rule at this week’s Budget. If so, this would strengthen fiscal credibility and help to lock-in the recent falls in local... 23rd February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: soft end to 2025 but reasons to be upbeat The latest batch of activity data from South Africa point to GDP growth softening to 0.2-0.3% q/q in the final quarter of last year. But we remain optimistic that a combination of easing supply side... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Will Africa continue to shrug off surging Chinese Imports Chinese exports to Africa surged last year and we expect Africa’s trade deficit with China to persist presenting risks to domestic industrialisation ambitions. However, China has levers that it can... 17th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation backdrop to prompt more rate cuts in SSA Inflation is subdued or falling across Sub-Saharan Africa, a trend which we think has further to run over the course of 2026. Monetary stances are generally tight, which provides policymakers with... 4th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Rally in South African assets to run out of steam After a record-breaking year, we think the rally in South African assets will lose momentum, given that there is little scope for risk premia to compress much further and we expect precious metals... 29th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s pause should not last long The South African Reserve Bank paused its easing cycle as we expected today, but the commentary was dovish suggesting even if positive shocks to inflation do emerge the path of interest rates will... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
