Metals Outlook Metals to muddle through in 2020 We have revised up our end-2020 forecast for the prices of gold and silver to reflect the fact that we now expect roughly as much monetary easing by the Fed as the market. Meanwhile, we have trimmed... 1st November 2019 · 17 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs tell contradictory stories There was a marked divergence between China’s October official and unofficial PMIs, which makes it difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the manufacturing sector. The rise in the Caixin PMI... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack October’s optimism set to fade The apparent thaw in the US-China trade dispute gave a lift to the prices of most industrial commodities in October. However, we are sceptical that a lasting resolution to the trade conflict will be... 31st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Focus Measuring the risk premium in the oil price The September attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia re-ignited discussion of the “risk premium” in the oil price. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, we have created a methodology... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on the Fed This week has been relatively quiet in commodity markets, but there could be some bigger moves in prices in the next seven days given that the Fed meets on Thursday and a raft of economic data is... 25th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Outlook Light at the end of the tunnel Oil prices are likely to remain subdued in the near term as the global economy continues to slow and risk aversion prevails. And while natural gas and coal prices could rise in the coming months as... 23rd October 2019 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears taking the reins once again Despite the much-vaunted “mini-deal” on US-China trade, most industrial commodity prices fell this week. Uninspiring activity data across major commodity consumers, notably for the US and China... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Outlook Turning a corner in 2020 While there appears to be little to lift spirits in the near term, we think the macro-economic backdrop for commodity markets will turn more positive during 2020. We expect global economic growth to... 18th October 2019 · 25 mins read
Energy Update Global crude demand to trough in early 2020 Subdued global economic activity will weigh on oil demand next year. That said, we expect GDP growth to gradually pick up over the course of the year, and new International Maritime Organization rules... 16th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to slow China’s commodity imports held up rather better than imports of other goods in September. However, we think import volumes will tail off in the months ahead amid faltering economic activity. 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trade talk optimism could prove misguided With little in the way of major economic data releases this week, most commodity prices rose on the back of news that the US and China may agree a “mini deal” as part of ongoing trade talks. This... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Oct.) OPEC’s September production data were distorted by the attacks on Saudi oil facilities, but overall output remained subdued. Deeper supply cuts are likely to be discussed at OPEC’s December meeting... 10th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose again last week and we suspect that they will increase further owing to ongoing refinery maintenance and the prospect of lower product demand as the US economy slows. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Growth concerns to the fore Most industrial commodity prices fell this week as concerns about global economic growth intensified. A raft of weak economic data from the US and the euro-zone seems to suggest that the recent... 4th October 2019 · 7 mins read
