Commodities Update China’s commodity imports end 2019 on a high China’s commodity imports were strong in December, and in 2019 as a whole, in part because a number of one-off structural factors boosted volumes. Looking ahead, we expect growth in commodity imports... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Devil in the detail of US-China trade deal Oil prices yo-yoed last week, as US-Iran warmongering faded almost as quickly as it started. Similarly, the price of gold spiked, but ended the week unchanged. Meanwhile, the market reaction to the... 10th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2020 We think that oil prices will rise in 2020, as the market moves into a small deficit. In contrast, we expect natural gas prices to fall owing to strong supply growth and for this, in turn, to dampen... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key commodity forecasts for 2020 We are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for commodities prices this year. While global economic growth will remain subdued, we think it will start to revive over the course of 2020. Therefore... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack December’s moves point to better times ahead The prospect of a ‘Phase One’ trade deal between the US and China buoyed commodity prices in December. Although we expect trade tensions to remain elevated, we think that most commodity prices will... 6th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell sharply last week as exports soared and there was a step-up in refinery activity. We expect exports to remain high given constrained OPEC+ output. In contrast, product... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran tensions to take centre stage Oil prices received a shot in the arm following Friday’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top ranking Iranian general. Regardless of geopolitical events, we expect constrained supply growth and a... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update A few comments on the escalation in US-Iran tensions The oil price has jumped today on the back of the US assassination of a powerful Iranian military leader. Given the backdrop of improved investor sentiment in the oil market, prices could remain... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Good and bad in China’s PMI data China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs remained strong at the end of 2019, which is positive news for commodities demand. However, we think that the ongoing slowdown in construction... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities end the year on a high Most commodity prices rose this week, in part owing to the release of strong Chinese activity data. Lingering optimism following the announcement of a US-China “Phase One” trade deal at the end of... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dodge a bullet Most industrial commodity prices rose this week, as the US and China announced that they had reached a phase-one trade deal. The agreement cancels the tariffs scheduled to come into effect this Sunday... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Trade deal no panacea for soybeans Regardless of the outcome of US-China trade talks, we think lower Chinese consumption will weigh on the price of soybeans next year. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s record oil imports not the whole story China’s commodity imports were relatively strong in November, perhaps reflecting some front-loading of regional spending on infrastructure. But our view that growth in China’s property sector is set... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC still has work to do The announcement that OPEC+ will deepen output cuts by 0.5m bpd in the first quarter of 2020 boosted oil prices this week. While the decision means that the market will be a bit tighter next year than... 6th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Commodities Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
