Energy Update Why isn’t the oil market more worried? We think the cautious oil market reaction to the outbreak of conflict in Israel probably reflects the huge uncertainty about the eventual outcome, but also a somewhat lower “Middle East” risk premium. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) Monthly global steel output in September fell in year-on-year terms for the first time in 2023, in large part due to a contraction in China’s production. With demand set to remain weak and low... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) After reaching a record high in August, global aluminium production eased back in September but remained strong. Given that demand growth is relatively subdued, the increase in global supply may only... 20th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Green Transition Chart Pack Green Transition Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Green Transition Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. 2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record, but somewhat ominously the headwinds... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: raising oil output will be a long journey The reported deal that is close to being reached to lift US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in return for competitive elections would help to raise the country’s oil output from very depressed... 16th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Israel-Gaza and heightened geo-economic risk and what to expect in the post-pandemic rates era 13th October 2023 Listen Now
Commodities Weekly “Wait-and-see” prevails in commodities markets It was a mixed week for prices, with energy, agricultural and precious metals outperforming industrial metals. There was a relatively muted reaction to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
What the Israel-Hamas conflict means for energy prices “The market is not pricing in these risks yet,” says Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics. “But it is fair to say that as long as this conflict goes on, and the suggestion... 10th October 2023 · The Telegraph
Oil prices rise following Hamas attack on Israel Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, told the BBC's Today programme that Iran had been increasing oil production over the course of this year despite US sanctions. "The US... 9th October 2023 · BBC
Event Drop-In: Israel-Gaza conflict – Assessing macro and market risks 9th October 2023, 2:00PM BST The attack by Hamas militants on Israel, and the Netanyahu government’s declaration of war, brings renewed turmoil to the Middle East, threatening regional political and economic stability. In this...
Event Drop-In: Why “higher for longer” won’t survive – and what it means for markets 11th October 2023, 3:00PM BST Markets have been in a febrile mood amid a growing belief that central banks will need to keep interest rates at elevated levels in order to properly throttle inflation. But are expectations that...
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor Our in-house metals demand proxies show that growth was subdued in mid-2023. There could be some pick-up in the coming months owing to additional Chinese infrastructure spending, but we think a more... 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Looser monetary policy to support prices in 2024 We expect most commodity prices to struggle over the rest of this year as developed economies flirt with recession, the US dollar remains strong and investor risk appetite moderates. That said, we... 26th September 2023 · 28 mins read
Event Drop-In: Oil prices and the threat to the global inflation outlook 19th September 2023, 2:00PM BST The recent surge in oil prices is fuelling concerns about an inflationary resurgence that could upset central bank monetary policy plans. But how worried should investors be? In this special briefing…
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Prices will remain buffeted by weak global economic growth and a strong dollar, at a time of mounting supply risks and some policy stimulus in China. These conflicting pressures suggest that prices... 8th September 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Yawning deficit in the oil market to prop up prices It was a mixed week for commodity prices as they faced conflicting pressures in the form of the appreciation of the US dollar, mounting supply risks and signs of some resilience in China’s demand... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
