Event Climate/Energy Drop-In: Carbon price outlook – More pain, then big gain 7th March 2024, 3:00PM GMT Carbon prices have been falling on the back of lower natural gas prices and reduced European industrial activity. There’s a case for recovery, driven by a combination of macro, market and regulatory…
Climate Economics Focus Forecasting near-term moves in the carbon price This final report of a three-part mini-series establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It takes an in-depth look at the various factors that typically drive the EU... 22nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Focus A primer on the EU’s emissions trading scheme This first report of a three-part mini-series explains what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in 2005. It then explores how reforms to the ETS... 22nd February 2024 · 13 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Oil prices are likely to remain buffeted by supply fears as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues. However, we think there will be support on the demand side later in the year as monetary... 6th February 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly US natural gas prices to stay low in 2024 We have revised down our forecast for US natural gas prices this year, as the outlook for domestic supply has improved. Note: Join our special online briefing on Middle East conflict, shipping... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Some positives in China’s PMI data China PMI surveys showed some signs of strengthening in January. But we still think they understate the strength of metals demand, which we expect to hold up fairly well this year. Note: Join our... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Metals Focus Introducing our lithium price forecast We forecast that global lithium demand will roughly double by 2025 (from 2022). But supply will increase at a slower pace, which is why we forecast that prices will rise. In this Metals Focus, we set... 31st January 2024 · 11 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Geopolitics, shipping disruptions and supply chain risks 7th February 2024, 3:00PM GMT Do maritime disruptions threaten a repeat of pandemic-era supply shocks? Should investors brace for an inflationary resurgence? Amid Houthi attacks on shipping and fears of escalating conflict in the…
Why the Middle East Conflict Has Failed to Boost Oil Prices No major interruptions have occurred, and this "explains much of the sanguine response in the oil market," wrote Caroline Baine, chief commodity strategist at Capital Economics. 22nd January 2024 · Wall Street Journal
Green Transition Chart Pack Green Transition Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Green Transition Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the... 18th January 2024 · 1 min read
Drivers face petrol price hike as Shell suspends Red Sea shipments Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, added: “It could eventually push up the price of petroleum products as refineries will have to pay higher shipping costs.” 17th January 2024 · The Telegraph
Energy Update Why hasn’t the Middle East sparked an oil price rally? Perhaps surprisingly, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions has not prompted a surge in oil prices. We think this is because, so far, oil output is unaffected. Moreover, we suspect it also... 16th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Drivers face petrol price hike as Shell suspends Red Sea shipments Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, added: “It could eventually push up the price of petroleum products as refineries will have to pay higher shipping costs.” 16th January 2024 · The Telegraph
Commodities Update China commodity imports to hold firm, for now China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months. 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: What’s really happening with China's commodities demand? 12th January 2024, 8:00AM GMT China’s survey data paint a downbeat picture of demand in the world’s largest commodity consumer. But we don’t think the economic reality is quite so bleak. Caroline Bain, our Chief Commodities...
Commodities Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the big declines in energy prices are now behind us. Oil prices will remain... 5th January 2024 · 0 mins read
