Commodities Weekly Optimists need a little patience Commodities markets experienced a bit of a reality check this week, with prices falling despite little material change in the underlying demand and supply fundamentals. In the same way that optimism... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tweaking our forecasts; the super-cycle debate Despite big moves in bond and equity markets, commodity markets were fairly subdued this week. Nevertheless, we expect oil prices to break higher again before long, and our new forecasts show them... 12th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold unlikely to fall much further While we are revising down our forecast, we don’t expect the price of gold to fall that much further this year. In our view, the recent decline in investment demand is unlikely to continue for long... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices making up for lost time It was a relatively two-sided affair in commodities markets this week. On the one hand, oil prices rose on the back of greater-than-expected output restraint announced by OPEC+. And on the other hand... 5th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Rally in industrial metals unlikely to last Most metals prices advanced in February, with the exception of gold and silver. However, we suspect that the current prices of industrial metals look overextended, especially given the recent run of... 3rd March 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Investor optimism may prove short-lived Most commodity prices rose in February encouraged by falling COVID-19 infections and the vaccine rollout, which point to a recovery in economic activity and higher commodities demand later in the year... 1st March 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Why we think the rally in sterling will continue The pound has performed better than all other G10 currencies so far in 2021 (see Chart 1), rising from $1.36 at the start of January to almost a three-year high of $1.41 now. We expect the strength of... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We don’t think we are in for another “taper tantrum” We still expect emerging market (EM) “risky” assets and currencies to make further gains this year, despite growing concerns about another “taper tantrum”. 23rd February 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think that UK equities will outperform this year The FTSE 100 made a flying start to the week on Monday, and although its rally has paused today, we expect it to outperform its peers elsewhere the world over the rest of this year. We think that the... 16th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Super-sized boosts to energy inflation on the way Higher oil prices will provide a boost to energy inflation in most countries over the coming months, including in Switzerland and the Nordics. In Sweden and Norway, the energy component will be... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM local currency govt. bond yields to remain low Although central banks in a couple of emerging markets (EMs) have taken a less accommodative stance than we had expected over the last two weeks, we remain more dovish than the consensus and investors... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect UK equities to outperform in 2021 We think that UK equities will outperform their peers elsewhere this year, as some of the headwinds that they faced in 2020 fade or even act as tailwinds. 9th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the 10-year gilt yield and sterling may rise a little further The Bank of England’s policy announcement on Thursday was in line with our expectations and provides further support to our view that the 10-year gilt yield will probably rise a little further this... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Despite bubble talk, we expect risky assets to rise more We continue to forecast that risky assets generally will fare well over the next couple of years as the global economy recovers and monetary policy remains accommodative. Despite their rapid rise... 29th January 2021 · 30 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
