Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccines rollouts to boost GDP & Nordic currencies The latest data suggest that activity was more resilient in Q4 than we had previously feared, with GDP in Norway and Sweden likely to have grown relative to the previous quarter, for example. That... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Little evidence of widespread overvaluation in risky assets Despite signs of exuberance in a few markets, we don’t think that we are in the late stages of a bubble in “risky” assets generally. Provided vaccines enable the gradual relaxation of coronavirus... 14th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of the outlook for US inflation Although US consumer price inflation remained low at the end of last year, we expect it to rebound before long. (See US Key Data & Events.) As a result, we suspect that inflation compensation will... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We still expect the Fed to keep Treasury yields low Despite the jump in US Treasury yields this week following the Georgia Senate run-off election results, we continue to think that the Fed will keep them from rising much further this year. 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the recent rise in Treasury yields will continue We continue to forecast that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end this year and next at 1%, even though it has crept above that level as the Democrats look set to take control of Congress. 6th January 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect EM local currency bond yields to remain low Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM LC sovereign bonds Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB not out of the woods yet As well as being a game-changer for economic prospects next year, the positive news on the vaccine front has also helped to ease the upward pressure on the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the US labour market will hold back its stock market US equity markets largely shrugged off the disappointing US Employment Report. We think that markets will continue to look through short-term economic disruption from rising COVID-19 cases and focus... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Brexit probably more key than vaccines for sterling in near term Sterling was largely unmoved by news that the UK would be the first developed economy to approve a COVID-19 vaccine on Wednesday. In our view, this is because the key driver of the country’s exchange... 2nd December 2020 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Reaction to vaccine news may be a sign of things to come Equities and bonds in emerging markets (EMs) rallied sharply on the vaccine news earlier this month, particularly outside of Asia. We think they will continue to fare well as the global economy... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think EM Asian currencies in general are overvalued The Bank of Thailand expressed concern over the strength of the baht at its meeting on Wednesday. Like most EM Asian currencies, the baht has appreciated against the US dollar in recent months. But we... 18th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We forecast stronger equities and a weaker dollar We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our... 13th November 2020 · 31 mins read
