US Fed Watch Better inflation data needed for June rate cut Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still... 13th March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch March rate cut is data dependent At next week’s FOMC meeting, we don’t expect the Fed to hint at upcoming rate cuts and it may even maintain its tightening bias in the accompanying statement. Frankly, everything depends on the... 24th January 2024 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed will need to acknowledge plunging inflation soon With markets already convinced that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on any clues as to how soon and how far rates will be cut. We suspect officials... 6th December 2023 · 9 mins read
US Fed Watch Still on course for rate cuts next year We don’t expect a significant change in tone from the Fed next week, with rates on hold but officials keeping the option of further tightening on the table. That said, the surge in long-term Treasury... 25th October 2023 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Easing inflation to drive rates sharply lower next year The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the FOMC meeting next week and the new projections could show that plans for further hikes have been scrapped. We continue to expect the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch One last hurrah for the hawks Fed officials appear set on another 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, which would take the fed funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. But a run of softer inflation readings over the... 19th July 2023 · 9 mins read
US Fed Watch Higher for longer There appears to be enough support on the FOMC for a pause at next week’s meeting, but the statement and new projections will make clear that this is not the end of the hiking cycle. We now expect... 7th June 2023 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates close to peak The Fed looks set to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next week, taking the fed funds target range to a peak of 5.00%-5.25%. Although the accompanying statement may leave open the... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Will financial stability needs supplant inflation goal? The Fed has a very difficult policy decision to make at next week’s FOMC meeting – should it hold interest rates unchanged in the wake of the SVB collapse to shore up market confidence or, with core... 15th March 2023 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed getting close to peak in rates We expect the Fed to downshift to a 25bp rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, taking the fed funds rate to between 4.50% and 4.75%, but there could be one last hawkish sting in the tail. We expect... 25th January 2023 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Peak in rates coming into view The Fed is set to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Chair Jerome Powell will seek to ensure the move isn’t interpreted as a dovish ‘pivot’, and the Fed’s new... 7th December 2022 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow soon Fed officials are gearing up for another 75bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. But that ultra-aggressive pace of tightening won’t continue indefinitely and, while he will be keen to avoid... 26th October 2022 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Peak hawkishness to continue for a little longer The continued strength of core inflation points to another 75bp rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting and rates may now rise slightly higher than we previously thought. But the FOMC’s new projections... 14th September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Another 75bp hike on the way The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 75bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, taking the target range to between 2.25% and 2.50%. Officials won’t rule out the possibility of a third consecutive 75bp hike... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch 50bp hikes to continue until inflation slows The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week and to signal that a similar move is coming in July. We still think a drop back in inflation will allow officials to ease the... 8th June 2022 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed’s hawkish transformation complete We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 50bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and to launch its quantitative tightening, with the cap on maturing principal allowed to roll off each month quickly rising... 27th April 2022 · 7 mins read
