US Employment Report Preview Not another 2010 or 2011 We don’t think that the 120,000 increase in nonfarm payroll employment in March, which was half February’s rise, is the start of a sustained period of substantially weaker jobs growth. Our econometric... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate will decline more gradually Our econometric model, which takes into account a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment rose by around 200,000 in March. That would be the fourth monthly increase of 200,000 or... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving The labour market appears to have strengthened markedly over the last few months, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a 10-month high of 243,000 in January and the unemployment rate falling to a... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Benchmark revision adds to the uncertainty After incorporating the “known knowns”, our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 150,000 in January, which would be less than December’s 200,000 gain. The “known unknowns” of the... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Momentum unlikely to be maintained throughout 2012 Our econometric model suggests that the labour market ended 2011 on a high note, with non-farm payrolls rising by around 150,000 in December. That would be a marked turnaround from the stagnation in... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Better economy starts to help young workers Our employment model suggests that the recent improvement in economic activity is consistent with non-farm payrolls increasing by around 100,000 in November, up from October's 80,000 gain. It is also... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Don't blame small firms Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that non-farm payroll employment rose by around 75,000 in October. That would be broadly similar to the increases seen in... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Businesses reluctant to boost headcounts Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of labour market indicators, suggests that for the second consecutive month the US economy as a whole failed to create any jobs in September. The... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Braced for an outright fall in payrolls There is a real danger that the recent economic slowdown and financial market turmoil resulted in non-farm payroll employment falling outright in August, perhaps by around 25,000. That would be the... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rising layoffs hint at more permanent slowdown The fact that the recent slowdown in jobs growth is mostly due to a rise in firings, rather than a fall in hiring, suggests that a rapid rebound in non-farm payroll employment is not imminent. Our... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown sustained Our econometric model suggests that the discouraging 54,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May was followed by a slightly less disappointing 80,000 gain in June. That may go someway to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A temporary slowdown Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment increased by around 150,000 in May. That would be the smallest increase since January and would be... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Limited progress Our econometric model suggests that jobs growth was a little bit weaker in April, with payrolls increasing by around 175,000, down from the average rise of 200,000 in the previous two months. This may... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Conditions gradually improving Labour market conditions are still improving and our econometric model, which is based on a range of monthly indicators, points to a 175,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March. After the rapid... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound as weather effects are reversed After having been depressed by the unseasonably heavy snowfall in January, we anticipate that payroll employment rebounded by about 250,000 in February. The underlying story, though, is one in which... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Has the rebound in payrolls been even weaker? Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment increased by around 125,000 in January. That would be in line with the average gain in the previous three months and suggest that the recent... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read