Skip to main content

US Employment Report Preview: Payroll growth slowing with more weakness to come

We expect the recent boost from state & local government hiring to fade, resulting in a smaller 130,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. The immigration crackdown likely kept the unemployment rate at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings growth likely held steady too, at 3.7% y/y.

Subscriber content

Read this in full, free

Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.


Free. 10 articles. No card required.

By completing this form you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions for the provision of a free trial of Capital Economics' services. We take your privacy seriously and will not share your details with others without your consent. By providing your details, including your email address, you are consenting to Capital Economics sending you macroeconomic commentary and analysis. You can unsubscribe at any time. See our Privacy Policy for more information.