UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024)

March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for...

30th April 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Mar. 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to 50.2 in February, the first time it has risen above the no change level since August last year. The rise was driven small improvements across the housing...

5th April 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Mar. 24)

The first decline in the Halifax House price Index in six months confirmed that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall.

5th April 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Feb. 2024)

February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals to a 17-month high. This is unlikely to continue in the near term. But if we’re...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (March 2024)

The 0.2% m/m fall in the Nationwide house price index in March (consensus: +0.3%, CE: +0.2%) suggested that the rise in mortgage rates since the turn of the year has caused house prices to stall. That...

2nd April 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 24)

The smallest month-on-month increase in house prices since September suggested that the boost to house prices from the decline in mortgage rates since last summer is over. With mortgage rates now...

7th March 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Feb. 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to 49.7 in February, just under the no change level. The rise was driven by the housing component, with commercial activity edging back a touch. As interest...

6th March 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Price Index (Feb. 2024)

Another sizeable monthly increase in the Nationwide house price index in February confirmed that lower mortgage rates are feeding through to higher prices. But recent increases in interest rate...

1st March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024)

January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has...

29th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2024)

The large 1.3% m/m gain in Halifax’s measure of house prices in January was the largest since June 2022, and suggests we are already almost halfway towards our forecast that house prices will rise by...

7th February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.)

The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 46.8 in December to 48.8 in January was driven by improvements in both the housing and commercial readings. (See Chart 1.) While we doubt commercial...

6th February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Price Index (Jan. 2024)

The larger than expected +0.7% m/m gain in house prices in January (consensus: +0.1%, Capital Economics: +0.4%) reflected improving public sentiment about the economy and the housing market and...

31st January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Dec. 2023)

December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some support to our view that the economic recovery...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 23)

Market was picking up even before latest slide in mortgage rates The December RICS Housing Market survey showed sales volumes rising and buyer demand recovering even before the further sizeable drop...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.)

The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing balance, while the commercial reading fell further. Looking ahead, we...

5th January 2024 · 2 mins read